美联储，本周或再度降息

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates for the second consecutive time to support a weakening job market, but there may be internal opposition regarding the continuation of this easing cycle beyond October due to inflation concerns [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions and Market Reactions - The latest CPI data shows that the core inflation rate in the U.S. reached a three-month low in September, reinforcing the Fed's plan to cut rates this week, although the overall stagnation in price reduction does not justify further rate cuts in the future [1][3]. - The interest rate futures market has fully priced in a 25 basis point cut this week, another cut in December, and potentially another in March next year, indicating strong market expectations for continued easing [4][5]. - The U.S. Treasury market, valued at $29 trillion, has seen exceptional returns this year, likely achieving its best annual performance since 2020, driven by expectations of further rate cuts [4]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements within the Federal Reserve - Despite market expectations for a total of 50 basis points in cuts over the next two meetings, there are concerns among some Fed officials about the appropriateness of such aggressive market pricing [5]. - A group of regional Fed presidents may voice dissent regarding the rate cuts, with a significant number of policymakers indicating a preference for no further cuts after September [5][7]. - Officials express renewed concerns about inflation, particularly regarding the long-term stability of inflation expectations, which could pose risks to monetary policy credibility [7][8]. Group 3: Labor Market and Economic Outlook - The labor market has shown signs of significant softening, with recent data not providing much positive signal, leading to a cautious approach towards further rate cuts [3][8]. - The current job growth rate is close to the level needed to maintain stable unemployment, indicating a potential mismatch between economic growth and labor market conditions [5][8]. - The absence of official data during the government shutdown complicates the Fed's policy decisions, leading to a continuation of the previously established policy path without clear dovish signals [8].