势银数据 | 中国SAF项目建设快于需求释放，出口市场仍是消化存量关键

Core Insights - The article highlights the rapid development of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) projects in China, indicating a significant increase in planned capacity and the need for export to manage production levels [3][5][6]. Industry Overview - Since the beginning of 2025, 47 new SAF projects have been planned, surpassing the total number of publicly announced projects before 2024, leading to a total planned capacity of over 13.28 million tons per year [3][6]. - As of September 2025, the SAF project startup rate exceeds 25%, with a built capacity of 1.156 million tons per year [4][9]. - China has four factories with SAF export licenses, totaling approximately 1.2 million tons of SAF export quotas [5][18]. Project Development - The SAF industry in China is characterized by a "supply-first, demand-abroad" model, indicating that while production capacity is expanding, domestic demand needs to be stimulated [5]. - There are currently 16 ongoing projects and 10 completed projects, with a startup rate exceeding 25% [9][12]. - The SAF projects are primarily concentrated in provinces such as Jiangsu, Hebei, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Chongqing, and Shandong, with significant progress in several other provinces [12]. Technological and Economic Factors - The HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids) route remains dominant due to its maturity and the established collection chain for used cooking oil (UCO) in China, despite rising UCO prices impacting production costs [15]. - New technologies are being explored, with successful tests of the Fischer-Tropsch synthesis SAF project and contracts signed for Honeywell's MTJ technology, indicating a diversification of technological approaches [15]. Policy and Support - The SAF sector has seen increased policy support, including the inclusion of the entire SAF supply chain in the 2025 Green Finance Support Project Directory, allowing companies to apply for low-cost green loans [18]. - Significant investments and standards have been introduced, such as the first SAF-specific policy in Chengdu and the release of industry standards for quantifying SAF's carbon footprint [18]. - The export sector has also seen advancements, with the issuance of a second batch of SAF export licenses, increasing the number of licensed factories to four [18]. Company Quotas - The following companies have received SAF export quotas: - Lianyungang Jiaao New Energy Co., Ltd.: 372,400 tons [19] - Yigao Environmental Energy Technology (Zhangjiagang) Co., Ltd.: 260,000-300,000 tons [19] - Shandong Haike Chemical Co., Ltd.: 370,000 tons [19] - Shandong Sanju Bioenergy Co., Ltd.: 158,000 tons [19]