五年上涨超过 50%，美国牛肉价格为何持续飙升？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising prices of beef in the United States, attributing it to various factors including low cattle inventory, drought conditions, and market concentration among major meat processors [3][4][5][6]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of August 2023, ground beef prices have surpassed $6 per pound, while steak prices have exceeded $12 per pound, translating to nearly 200 RMB per kilogram [4]. - Since 2020, beef prices in the U.S. have increased by over 50%, significantly outpacing the price changes of other food items [4]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - The U.S. cattle inventory is at its lowest level in 75 years, with approximately 94 million head of cattle [4]. - The number of cattle slaughtered this summer has reached a ten-year low, contributing to the supply shortage [4]. Group 3: Drought Impact - A severe drought affected 60% of cattle in major cattle states, leading ranchers to incur high costs for feed and water, resulting in early slaughter of livestock [5]. - The drought conditions have made it increasingly difficult for ranchers to maintain and expand their herds, leading to a cautious approach towards investment in cattle [5]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The beef industry is characterized as cyclical, with ranchers hesitant to expand herds despite high prices due to high interest rates and the long breeding cycle of cattle [5][6]. - Major meat processors like Tyson and JBS control about 80% of the U.S. beef market, which has led to complaints about price manipulation and reduced profits for ranchers [6]. Group 5: Import Dynamics - The U.S. imports approximately 4 billion pounds of beef annually, accounting for about 13% of the total market, with Brazil being the largest source [7]. - Recent tariffs imposed on Brazilian beef have complicated the import situation, potentially leading to a halt in imports from Brazil [7][8]. Group 6: Consumer Demand - The retail beef demand index reached 99.31, the highest in 37 years, indicating strong consumer interest despite rising prices [9]. - Social media trends and a focus on quality have driven demand for premium beef products, with high-protein diets becoming increasingly popular among consumers [9][10].