美联储预计再降息

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming decisions from major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and Bank of Canada, with a focus on expected interest rate changes and economic implications [3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% due to recent lower-than-expected inflation data [7]. - Despite concerns about tariffs potentially increasing inflation, the labor market shows signs of weakness, leading the market to fully price in the Fed's rate cut expectations [7][8]. - The Fed's internal divisions on rate cuts are highlighted, with some officials expressing concerns about rising inflation despite a weak labor market [9][10]. Group 2: Economic Conditions in the U.S. - The U.S. economy is experiencing a paradox where the labor market shows fatigue while GDP growth remains resilient, influenced by factors such as tariff policies and wealth inequality [8]. - Optimistic scenarios suggest that fiscal stimulus measures could improve the economic conditions for low-income households, potentially narrowing the "K-shaped" economic gap [9]. - The third quarter growth appears strong, but a slowdown is anticipated by year-end, followed by a cyclical recovery in early next year [9]. Group 3: Bank of Japan Outlook - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its current policy but may signal a hawkish stance, with potential conditions for rate hikes forming by December [12][14]. - The new Prime Minister's stance complicates the decision-making process for the Bank of Japan, as they seek to raise borrowing costs to the highest level since 1995 [12]. - Market expectations indicate a 10% chance of a rate hike, with concerns about the yen's weakness and inflationary pressures [14]. Group 4: European Central Bank and Bank of Canada - The European Central Bank is anticipated to keep rates unchanged, with recent inflation data showing a slight rebound but overall stability in economic growth [16][17]. - The Bank of Canada is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points to 2.25% amid economic pressures, including high unemployment and low investment [18]. - Despite the expected rate cut, some economists remain cautious about further reductions due to sticky inflation and potential fiscal support [18].