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MLF连续8个月加量续做，四季度或深度释放流动性
第一财经·2025-10-27 11:07

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a net injection of 200 billion yuan through a one-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation, marking the continuation of a trend of increasing liquidity support for the economy over the past eight months [3][4][5]. Group 1: MLF Operations and Liquidity - In October, the PBOC conducted a total of 9,000 billion yuan in MLF operations, with 7,000 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net injection of 2,000 billion yuan [3][4]. - The MLF net injection in October was slightly lower than the 3,000 billion yuan seen in August and September, but the overall long-term liquidity injection remained stable [4][5]. - The total net liquidity injection for October reached 6,000 billion yuan, including 4,000 billion yuan from reverse repos [4]. Group 2: Economic Context and Government Debt - The liquidity measures are partly in response to a significant tax period and month-end pressures, which are expected to create substantial strain on the financial system [6]. - The PBOC's actions are also aimed at supporting the issuance of government bonds, with an anticipated net financing of over 1 trillion yuan in October due to ongoing local government debt issuance [7]. - The coordination between monetary and fiscal policies is emphasized, as the PBOC's liquidity support is intended to facilitate government bond issuance and meet the financing needs of enterprises and households [7]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - The PBOC is expected to maintain a moderately accommodative monetary policy stance into the fourth quarter, with a focus on quantity-based monetary tools [10]. - The upcoming maturity of MLF and reverse repos, totaling 5.6 trillion yuan and 1.9 trillion yuan respectively, may lead to further liquidity measures, including potential reserve requirement ratio cuts or bond purchases [11]. - Overall, market liquidity is projected to remain stable and ample, with limited upward pressure on interest rates as the year-end approaches [11].