【首席观察】CPI降了，金价却跌了，黄金还能买吗？

Core Viewpoint - The price-driving logic of gold is shifting from being solely a "safe-haven asset" to a "multi-attribute game" perspective, reflecting a more complex role in the market [1][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Despite a slight decline in gold prices, capital is not fleeing the market in panic, with over $4.3 billion net inflow into international spot gold on October 24 [5][7]. - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, saw its holdings increase by 28 tons to 1,046.93 tons, indicating ongoing interest despite price fluctuations [6][10]. - The recent geopolitical easing has reduced short-term demand for gold as a safe haven, while its interest rate attributes are becoming more pronounced [10][11]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. CPI data released on October 24 showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 3%, which was below market expectations, typically supporting rate cut expectations [2][8]. - Analysts suggest that the market's focus is shifting from "what policies will be implemented" to "what these policies mean," indicating a potential transition in gold's role from a hedge against uncertainty to a bet on future rate cuts [11][12]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Projections - Historical comparisons indicate that similar scenarios have occurred before, such as before the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 and during the initial phase of quantitative easing in 2008, where gold's safe-haven attributes diminished initially but later transitioned to a monetary attribute [10][11]. - The upcoming fourth quarter of 2025 may see gold prices experiencing a significant adjustment, similar to 2008, but the underlying factors differ, with current market dynamics reflecting a more strategic positioning rather than a crisis mode [15][16]. - The interplay of key economic data, geopolitical tensions, and technical support levels will determine gold's price trajectory in the near future, with $4,000 per ounce being a critical support level [16][17].