第一财经·2025-10-28 00:19Core Viewpoint - The optimistic sentiment surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) continues to drive up valuations for major tech companies like Nvidia and Microsoft, contributing to record highs in major stock indices such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones [2] Financial Performance Expectations - The third quarter earnings season is entering a busy phase, with 175 S&P 500 companies set to report. So far, 87% of the reported earnings have exceeded expectations, and 83% of revenues have also surpassed forecasts [4] - Five of the "Tech Giants" will report earnings this week, with Microsoft, Meta, and Google leading the announcements [4] Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - A recent global fund manager survey by Bank of America indicates that market sentiment has reached its highest level since February, with 39% of managers favoring long positions in the "Tech Giants" [5] - Analysts expect the tech sector to lead with over 23% earnings growth, highlighting the significance of AI-related capital expenditure plans for the upcoming earnings reports [5] Capital Expenditure and Future Growth - OpenAI has been central to major AI infrastructure deals, igniting market enthusiasm. Morgan Stanley predicts a 24% increase in capital expenditures for large tech companies next year, reaching nearly $550 billion [6] - Investors are becoming increasingly focused on the returns from these substantial expenditures, with concerns that the free cash flow generated by the "Tech Giants" is significantly lower than the capital being allocated [6] Valuation Concerns - High valuations for growth stocks make them susceptible to negative earnings surprises. Analysts predict that the earnings growth for the "Tech Giants" in Q3 will be about half of the previous quarter's actual growth rate, raising the bar for impressive earnings reports [8] - The concentration of the "Tech Giants" in the S&P 500 has reached 34%, with a projected average P/E ratio of 30 times, which is a 34% premium over the overall index [9] Market Dynamics and AI Outlook - Despite concerns about valuation bubbles and potential market corrections, Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about the future of AI, suggesting that the current market rise is driven more by fundamental growth rather than irrational speculation [9]