时隔十年，沪指重回4000点！专家称或进入更长期健康牛通道

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has reached a historic milestone with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 4000-point mark for the first time in ten years, indicating the start of a new bull market driven by "hard technology" rather than speculative leverage [1][2][4]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has seen significant growth, starting from around 2800 points in September 2024, reaching nearly 3500 points by June 2025, and surpassing 3900 points in October 2025 before breaking 4000 points [1]. - The total market capitalization of A-shares has increased from approximately 68 trillion yuan to 106.6 trillion yuan within a year, marking a rise of 38.6 trillion yuan [1]. Trading Activity - A-share trading volume and turnover have remained active, with daily trading volumes rising from below 800 billion yuan to a peak of 3.48 trillion yuan post-policy implementation, and a record of 40 consecutive trading days with turnover exceeding 2 trillion yuan [2]. Economic Confidence - The breakthrough of the 4000-point mark is seen as a strong indicator of market confidence in China's economic future and the results of capital market reforms, potentially attracting more long-term and foreign capital [2][4]. Market Dynamics - The current market dynamics differ from the 2015 bull market, which was driven by leverage and speculative trading. The present market is characterized by rational valuations and structural differentiation, primarily driven by advancements in hard technology [4]. - Analysts suggest that the current market adjustment phase is nearing its end, with expectations of a transition from valuation-driven to performance-driven market behavior [4][5]. Future Outlook - Short-term fluctuations may occur following the 4000-point breakthrough, as some investors may take profits, but the long-term outlook remains positive if the technology sector can sustain growth [7]. - Historical trends indicate that after a bull market adjustment, sectors aligned with upward industrial trends, such as technology and cyclical industries, are likely to outperform [7].