Core Viewpoint - The Nikkei average stock index has surpassed the 50,000 mark for the first time, marking a historic turning point in Japan's economic structure towards inflation and a shift in stock valuation from "perennially undervalued stocks" to "growth stocks" [2][4][11]. Group 1: Economic Transition - The transition from a deflationary economy to an inflationary one began approximately three years ago when price increases exceeded 3% [6]. - The governance reforms initiated about a decade ago are starting to show positive effects, with the average Return on Equity (ROE) for major listed companies rising to around 9%, surpassing the capital cost of approximately 8% [7][9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The expectation of corporate performance growth through price increases and continuous wage hikes is changing the perception of the Japanese stock market [2][8]. - The stock market is now seen as a "normal country" where stock prices rise in tandem with inflation, similar to major overseas economies [8]. Group 3: Conditions for Sustained Growth - Three key conditions are necessary for the Nikkei average to stabilize above 50,000: 1. Effective measures to boost prices, as current inflation is largely cost-push, with real wage growth remaining negative [13]. 2. Government investment to enhance the competitiveness of key industries, with a focus on sectors like semiconductors and energy [13]. 3. Consideration of market interest rates, as rising rates could jeopardize the stability of the Nikkei index [14].
日经突破5万点,是通缩向通胀的模式转换
日经中文网·2025-10-28 03:10