格隆汇APP·2025-10-28 09:33Core Viewpoint - The PCB industry is experiencing unprecedented growth opportunities driven by the surge in AI server demand and the unexpected recovery in traditional sectors, marking the beginning of a new growth cycle for the industry [2][4]. Demand Side Dual-Drive - The resilience in PCB demand is attributed to a dual-drive pattern of "emerging sectors' explosion + traditional sectors' recovery" [3][4]. - The breakthrough in AI technology is pushing the industry into a "golden phase" characterized by simultaneous increases in both volume and price [4]. AI Server Demand - The demand for PCBs in AI servers has transitioned from "concept" to "actual performance," significantly boosting industry growth [5]. - By 2025, NVIDIA's GB 200/300 NVL72 shipment is expected to meet projections, with the Blackwell & Rubin series anticipated to exceed 50,000-60,000 units in 2026, driving PCB demand [5]. - AI servers require higher technical specifications for PCBs compared to traditional servers, with high-layer count (HLC) and high-density interconnect (HDI) boards becoming core demands [5]. - UBS estimates that the PCB content per AI server will increase by 5-10 times compared to traditional servers, significantly impacting the market size [6]. Traditional PCB Demand Recovery - Traditional PCB demand is also recovering unexpectedly, providing a solid foundation for the industry [7]. - The smartphone sector is benefiting from the unexpected shipment volume of the iPhone 17 series, with global smartphone shipment forecasts for 2025/26 raised to 1.26 billion and 1.27 billion units, reflecting year-on-year growth of 3% and 1% respectively [7]. - The PC sector is experiencing a resurgence due to the replacement cycle following the end of Windows 10 support, with global PC shipment growth expected to exceed 4% in 2025/26 [7]. - General server demand is robust, driven by digital transformation and AI-related workloads, with global general server shipments projected to grow by 8.6% and 8.0% in 2025/26 [7]. PCB Industry Chain Analysis - The PCB industry chain exhibits an "upstream concentration" characteristic, with substrates and copper-clad laminates (CCL) being core raw materials benefiting from the AI demand explosion [9]. - BT substrates are experiencing high utilization rates due to the recovery in storage chip demand and supply shortages of key materials [11]. - The price of BT substrates has increased by 30% this year, with further increases expected by year-end [11]. - The high-speed CCL segment is seeing explosive demand, particularly for AI servers, with prices expected to rise by 10-15% in the second half of 2025 [13]. Company Analysis - Companies like Huadian Co. and Shennan Circuit are well-positioned in the North American market, with strong customer bases [15][16]. - Shenghong Technology is aggressively expanding capacity and customer outreach, particularly with NVIDIA [17]. - Companies such as Sinyi Electronics and Dazhu CNC are also reporting strong performance, driven by increased demand and pricing power in the PCB segment [18][20]. Conclusion - The Chinese PCB industry is entering a new upward cycle driven by AI, with upstream segments like substrates and CCL, along with leading companies in the AI server supply chain, being the primary beneficiaries [23].