豪门联姻资本局？八马茶业上市狂飙86%，加盟模式隐忧浮现

Core Viewpoint - Eight Horses Tea officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on October 28, with a significant opening price of 80.1 HKD, marking an increase of 86.7% by the end of the trading day, resulting in a market capitalization of 79.35 billion HKD [6][12]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 1.82 billion RMB, 2.12 billion RMB, and 2.14 billion RMB for the years 2022 to 2024, with net profits of 166 million RMB, 206 million RMB, and 224 million RMB respectively [11]. - In the first half of 2025, revenue dropped to 1.06 billion RMB, a decline of 4.23% year-on-year, while net profit fell by 17.81% to 120 million RMB [11]. - Sales and marketing expenses for 2022 to 2024 were 617 million RMB, 680 million RMB, and 692 million RMB, accounting for 33.9%, 32.1%, and 32.3% of revenue respectively [8][11]. Market Position and Strategy - Eight Horses Tea aims to position itself as the "Moutai of tea," targeting high-income consumers such as business professionals and small to medium-sized enterprise owners, with offline store prices ranging from 2,300 to 3,000 RMB [8][12]. - The company has expanded its offline store count to 3,585 by mid-2025, a net increase of 972 stores over three years, despite a 5.3% decline in offline channel revenue [12][13]. Product Offering and Consumer Perception - Online, the company has not established a clear high-end image, with flagship store products priced significantly lower than offline offerings, leading to concerns about value for self-consumption [4][10]. - Most products are not self-produced but obtained through custom procurement and self-packaging, raising questions about quality and pricing [10]. Ownership and Governance - The company is closely linked to prominent families through marriages, with significant connections to brands like Anta and Seven Wolves, which may influence its market strategy and operations [15][17]. - The governance structure is heavily family-oriented, with family members holding 55.9% of voting rights, indicating a strong familial control over company decisions [18]. Challenges and Risks - The reliance on a franchise model poses risks, as only 6.8% of stores are directly owned, making the company vulnerable to franchisee performance [12][13]. - High inventory levels, with a turnover period of 168 days, could indicate inefficiencies in stock management [13].