央行重启公开市场国债买卖操作，市场热议会否替代降准

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced the resumption of open market government bond trading operations, which had been suspended for nearly 10 months, signaling a response to the current stability in the bond market and aiming to boost market confidence [3][4]. Group 1: Policy Background - The open market government bond trading operations were first initiated in August 2024, with a cumulative purchase of 1 trillion yuan. The operations were paused at the beginning of this year due to imbalances in supply and demand in the bond market [4][5]. - The resumption of operations reflects a flexible regulatory approach closely tied to market conditions, aligning with the requirements of the Fourth Plenary Session for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts [4][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Following the announcement, the bond market reacted positively, with significant increases in government bond futures prices, indicating a rapid rise in expectations for policy easing [11]. - Analysts predict that the PBOC may adjust its operational model to avoid significant market disruptions, potentially favoring large-scale purchases from major banks without immediate market sales [7][9]. - The anticipated scale of bond purchases by the PBOC is estimated to be between 700 billion to 1 trillion yuan to counterbalance maturing bonds and maintain stable liquidity [9][12]. Group 3: Implications for Monetary Policy - The resumption of government bond trading operations may serve as a substitute for reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts, as increased liquidity from bond purchases could reduce the necessity for further RRR adjustments [12]. - This approach allows for the alleviation of pressure on commercial banks' bond holdings while providing a similar effect to RRR cuts, thus supporting stable market operations in the fourth quarter [12].