特朗普说了不算，美国市场的风向标依然是他

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of former President Trump's public statements on monetary policy, highlighting that his calls for interest rate cuts are often underestimated by the market and can even lead to an increase in Treasury yields, contrary to his intentions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction Analysis - Bloomberg's analysis shows that Trump's statements regarding interest rates are frequently undervalued by the market, resulting in rising Treasury yields instead of the desired rate cuts [3][4]. - The analysis employed a rigorous methodology, measuring market reactions based on Treasury yield changes 15 minutes before and one hour after Trump's statements [3][5]. Group 2: Data Analysis Methodology - To isolate market fluctuations unrelated to monetary policy, Bloomberg included stock prices as a reference indicator, establishing that if Treasury yields and stock prices move in opposite directions, it indicates a change in monetary policy expectations [5][6]. - Approximately half of Trump's interest rate-related statements can be considered effective policy signals, with minimal impact on 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields, averaging close to zero [6]. Group 3: Powell's Influence - In contrast, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's statements have a significant impact on the market, with data showing that his remarks can cause fluctuations in 2-year Treasury yields of up to 8 basis points and 10-year yields by 5 basis points [7][9]. - Powell's less frequent but more impactful statements are viewed as a clearer indicator of monetary policy direction compared to Trump's [9].