沪指一度突破4000点,稳步向上之际或有风格切换
第一财经·2025-10-28 14:35

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a positive sentiment with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 4000-point mark, reflecting investor confidence and potential for further upward movement, supported by regulatory policies and long-term capital inflows [3][5][6]. Market Performance - On October 28, the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed 4000 points, reaching a high of 4010.73 before closing at 3988.22, down 0.22%. The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also saw declines, with total trading volume in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing at 2.17 trillion yuan, a decrease of nearly 200 billion yuan from the previous day [3][6]. - The market's fluctuations are attributed to profit-taking behaviors in popular sectors and high valuations, with a potential shift in market style expected in the fourth quarter [3][7]. Regulatory Environment - The Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the importance of stability and balance in asset allocation, indicating that A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are undergoing continuous revaluation, enhancing their investment appeal [5]. - The regulatory framework is seen as supportive for long-term capital, with plans to introduce a refinancing framework and encourage companies to improve governance and increase shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks [5][6]. Sector Analysis - There is a notable divergence in sector performance, with high-growth sectors like artificial intelligence and solid-state batteries significantly outperforming the broader market over the past six months. However, the fourth quarter is traditionally a time for style rotation in the A-share market [8][9]. - Analysts predict that while high-growth sectors may face increased volatility due to high valuations, low-valuation sectors such as financial stocks are expected to attract more capital in the fourth quarter [10][11]. Investment Strategy - The market is anticipated to maintain a "slow bull" trend with increased volatility, and structural differentiation is expected to remain prominent. Investors are advised to focus on fundamentally strong companies and avoid chasing high valuations [9][12]. - The potential for a shift towards low-valuation sectors is highlighted, with financial and cyclical stocks possibly leading the market if supportive policies or capital inflows materialize [10][11].