《建议》未提经济增速具体目标,怎么看?
第一财经·2025-10-29 03:57

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the key objectives and strategies outlined in the "15th Five-Year Plan" for China's economic and social development, emphasizing high-quality growth, technological self-reliance, and comprehensive reforms to enhance living standards and national security [3][4]. Economic Growth - The "15th Five-Year Plan" does not set a specific economic growth target but emphasizes maintaining growth within a reasonable range, with a focus on increasing consumer spending and enhancing domestic demand as the main driver of economic growth [5][6]. - Analysts predict that China's GDP growth during the "15th Five-Year Plan" will average between 4.5% and 5.0%, ensuring a stable medium-to-high growth level while balancing growth, structural adjustments, and risk prevention [6][8]. Long-term Goals - By 2035, the plan aims for China's per capita GDP to reach the level of middle-income countries, which is generally considered to be around $20,000. Current projections indicate that China's per capita GDP will be approximately $13,445 in 2024, highlighting the significant gap that remains [7][8]. - Achieving this long-term goal will require maintaining a suitable economic growth rate during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [7]. Economic Potential Release - The plan emphasizes the need to fully unleash economic growth potential by leveraging China's institutional advantages, large market size, complete industrial system, and rich talent resources [10]. - The focus on reform and innovation is seen as crucial for overcoming systemic barriers and enhancing overall productivity, which is essential for achieving both qualitative and quantitative growth [10][11]. Industry Development - The plan outlines initiatives to upgrade key industries such as chemicals, machinery, and shipbuilding, aiming to enhance their global competitiveness and create an estimated market space of around 10 trillion yuan over the next five years [11]. - It also highlights the importance of developing strategic emerging industries like new energy and new materials, which are expected to generate significant market opportunities and contribute to high-quality economic growth [11].