有央行开始考虑卖黄金了

Core Viewpoint - Central banks around the world are significantly increasing their gold purchases, driving international gold prices to new highs this year. However, after surpassing the $4000 mark, prices have experienced a rapid pullback, prompting discussions among some central bank officials about the potential need to sell gold [1][2]. Group 1: Central Bank Actions - Benjamin Diokno, a member of the Philippine central bank's monetary board, stated that the current gold holdings are excessively high, with gold accounting for approximately 13% of the Philippines' $109 billion international reserves, exceeding the ideal range of 8%-12% [2][3]. - The Philippine central bank began accumulating gold reserves when prices were around $2000 per ounce, and prices have since doubled, briefly exceeding $4380 before retreating below $4000 due to easing geopolitical tensions and profit-taking by investors [2][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have risen approximately 52% this year, with a 30% increase over the past two months, largely driven by central banks' large-scale purchases, especially from emerging markets seeking to reduce reliance on the dollar [4][5]. - Following a record high, gold prices have sharply declined, attributed to profit-taking and volatility in the silver market, although Goldman Sachs expects continued increases in gold allocations by central banks and institutional investors amid global uncertainties, predicting prices could reach $4900 per ounce by the end of 2026 [5][6]. Group 3: Diverging Opinions - Not all analysts share bullish views; Capital Economics predicts a slight collapse in gold prices, forecasting a drop to $3500 per ounce by the end of 2026, citing that gold's share in reserves has exceeded 20%, which may deter further accumulation by central banks [7]. - Despite the mixed sentiments, at least 23 countries and regions increased their gold reserves in the first half of 2025, marking the 16th consecutive year of net purchases by central banks, with significant net buys recorded in 2022, 2023, and 2024 [7].