未来五年继续实施积极财政政策

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic deployment of China's economic and social development for the next five years, emphasizing the role of proactive fiscal policy and fiscal sustainability as outlined in the "15th Five-Year Plan" [3][4]. Fiscal Policy - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests a shift in focus towards "playing an active role in fiscal policy and enhancing fiscal sustainability," indicating a response to new domestic and international challenges [4][5]. - The continuation of expansionary fiscal policy is expected, as the plan emphasizes the need for increased fiscal support for economic development [6][7]. - The fiscal sustainability is highlighted as crucial for ensuring the normal operation of fiscal policies and providing adequate financial support for national goals [4][6]. Economic Context - China's general public budget revenue for the first three quarters of the year was 163,876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, while expenditures were 208,064 billion yuan, up 3.1% [7]. - The total government debt is projected to reach 92.6 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, with a government debt ratio of 68.7%, indicating manageable risk levels [7]. Enhancing Fiscal Sustainability - To enhance fiscal sustainability, it is essential to stabilize the macro tax burden and regulate tax incentives [8][9]. - The current narrow macro tax burden is around 13% of GDP, with expectations for it to gradually rise to a reasonable level of approximately 15% [9]. - Actions taken include the cancellation of tax exemptions on government bond interest and the expansion of the environmental tax base [9][10]. Future Directions - Future strategies should include establishing a long-term government debt management mechanism and enhancing the monitoring system for local government debt [10]. - There is a need for mid-term fiscal planning and addressing potential risks from the digital economy to improve the tax system's adaptability to new business models [10].