海外独角兽·2025-10-29 12:33Core Viewpoint - The article argues that AI is not a bubble but a genuine and long-term productivity revolution, supported by significant user growth and revenue from leading AI companies like OpenAI and Nvidia [2][3][7]. Market Analysis - This year marks the third year of the current AI bull market, with a historical probability of 48% for continued market growth next year [3][18]. - Investors should maintain patience regarding AI development, as significant returns often require time, as evidenced by Azure's six-year journey to positive ROIC [3][22]. - The AI sector has shown a remarkable return of 165% over the past three years, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 and non-AI companies [7][8]. AI Growth Dynamics - AI growth has diversified beyond the "Magnificent Seven" companies, with returns from AI sectors excluding these giants surpassing them for the first time in 2025 [10][13]. - New AI winners are emerging in sectors like energy, semiconductors, and software, with AI energy showing a 53% return year-to-date [13][15]. - The growth of AI is shifting towards energy, computing power, and foundational software, indicating a structural change in the industry [15]. Historical Context of "Bubble" - The article emphasizes the importance of long-term holding and understanding market cycles, suggesting that the probability of market growth remains significant even after multiple years of increases [17][20]. - A historical analysis indicates that the current market conditions do not exhibit the characteristics of a bubble, as the valuation metrics are not at extreme levels compared to past bubbles [38][40]. AI's Economic Impact - AI is expected to generate substantial revenue growth, with projections indicating a potential tenfold increase in AI-related profits over the next 5-10 years, reaching $1 trillion [3][90]. - The AI sector's revenue is anticipated to account for 4% of global corporate profits, highlighting its significant economic impact [3][90]. Investment Principles - The article outlines key investment principles for navigating the AI landscape, emphasizing the importance of not selling early during massive adoption phases and recognizing the distinct investment logic across different stages of AI development [117][119]. - Monitoring indicators such as OpenAI's progress and enterprise revenues is crucial for assessing the health and growth potential of the AI industry [122].