刚刚！降息25个基点

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada (BoC) has lowered its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, aligning with market expectations, due to economic weakness and anticipated inflation remaining near the 2% target [3][8]. Economic Conditions - The BoC cited ongoing weakness in the labor market and excess capacity in the economy as reasons for the rate cut, with core inflation stubbornly around 3% and broader indicators suggesting potential inflation at approximately 2.5% [7][8]. - The central bank has revised its GDP growth forecasts downward for the next two years, from 1.8% to 1.2% for 2025 and to 1.1% for 2026, attributing this to the impact of U.S. trade policies [8]. Inflation and Employment - The latest inflation data showed a year-on-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 2.4% in September, exceeding market expectations [8]. - The unemployment rate remains high at 7.1%, with low business investment and hiring intentions contributing to economic pressures [8][9]. Trade Relations - The ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. have created significant uncertainty, with tariffs negatively impacting Canada's economic capacity and increasing costs [9][10]. - The BoC's Governor, Tiff Macklem, emphasized that monetary policy cannot offset the damage caused by tariffs, and the economic outlook remains uncertain due to these trade conflicts [9][10]. Future Outlook - The BoC indicated that the current rate cut cycle may be nearing its end unless there are changes in inflation or economic prospects [10]. - Market economists are cautious about further rate cuts, with most expecting the policy rate to remain at 2.25% until the end of the following year [10].