加拿大央行：降息25个基点

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, signaling that the current rate cut cycle is nearing its end unless there are severe economic impacts from trade conflicts with the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Economic Forecasts and Impacts - The Bank of Canada has downgraded its economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 1.2% and 1.1% respectively, down from previous estimates of 1.8% for both years, due to the impact of U.S. tariffs [4] - The Canadian economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter, with concerns that the third quarter may also struggle to recover, projecting a 0.5% annualized growth for Q3 and 1% for Q4 [4] - The central bank noted that the economy is undergoing a difficult transition, with structural damage from trade conflicts reducing supply capacity and increasing costs, limiting the effectiveness of monetary policy [4][6] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The Bank of Canada indicated that the current policy rate is approximately suitable for keeping inflation near 2% while aiding the economy during this structural adjustment period [5] - Following the announcement of the rate cut and the hint at the end of the easing cycle, the Canadian dollar strengthened, reaching its highest level since October 1, and government bond yields rose across the board [8] - Market expectations for further rate cuts in December decreased from over 30% to about 20% after the announcement [8] Group 3: Future Considerations and Uncertainties - The Bank of Canada acknowledged significant uncertainties in its economic forecasts and is prepared to respond if the outlook changes [7] - The upcoming federal budget, expected to focus on infrastructure and major projects to stimulate growth, may present upward risks despite the downward pressures from trade conflicts [10]