美联储今夜必降息？三大终极悬念即将揭晓！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut during its October meeting, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4% with a 99.9% probability according to market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Rate Cut Expectations - The market anticipates a rate cut, but there may be internal disagreements within the Fed regarding future monetary policy direction due to a lack of economic data caused by the government shutdown [2][5]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell has expressed concerns about the labor market, indicating a potential consensus for the rate cut, while private sector data shows a decline in employment [2][3]. Group 2: Inflation Concerns - Despite acknowledging risks in the labor market, some Fed officials remain concerned about inflation, with the core CPI rising 3% year-over-year, exceeding the Fed's target by one percentage point [3][5]. - There is a significant divide within the Fed, with some members advocating for immediate rate cuts while others prefer to wait due to inflation risks [3][5]. Group 3: Economic Data Challenges - The government shutdown has created a data void, complicating the Fed's ability to assess the current economic situation, with only limited CPI data available [6][7]. - Analysts expect Powell to communicate uncertainty regarding future policy paths, especially in light of missing employment data [6][7]. Group 4: Balance Sheet Reduction - A key point of discussion is whether the Fed will officially announce an end to its balance sheet reduction, with major banks predicting this could happen during the meeting [8][11]. - The Fed's decision on balance sheet reduction will be influenced by the level of bank reserves, which have recently fallen below $3 trillion [9][11].