凌晨2：35，准时跳水，全球靴子落地

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the U.S. stock market, particularly the mixed results of major indices following comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding future interest rate cuts and economic conditions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the first consecutive rate cuts in a year [3]. - Powell indicated that a further rate cut in December is not guaranteed, highlighting uncertainty in the Fed's future policy direction [3][14]. - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with GDP growth in the first half of the year at 1.6%, down from 2.4% the previous year [5]. Group 2: Labor Market and Economic Indicators - The labor market appears to be cooling, with a notable slowdown in job growth since the beginning of the year, attributed to factors such as reduced immigration and declining labor force participation [6][8]. - Despite the delay in official employment data, evidence suggests that layoffs and hiring remain at low levels, although perceptions of job opportunities are declining [7]. - The overall economic activity growth may be slightly better than expected, driven by stronger consumer spending, while investment in equipment and intangible assets continues to grow [6]. Group 3: Inflation and Price Pressures - Inflation has significantly decreased from mid-2022 but remains slightly above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, with the overall PCE price index rising by 2.8% over the past 12 months [9][10]. - Higher tariffs are contributing to price increases in certain goods, leading to upward pressure on overall inflation [11][12]. - Powell noted that while short-term inflation risks are skewed upward, the risks to employment are skewed downward, creating a challenging economic environment [13].