2025年前三季度国债收益率回升19个基点，寿险公司综合偿付能力面临着“双向承压”的机理分析！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of interest rate fluctuations on the insurance industry, particularly focusing on the reclassification of assets and the potential risks associated with rising interest rates, which could lead to a "double kill" effect on financial stability and solvency ratios. Group 1: Asset Reclassification - Approximately 35 life insurance companies have reclassified their held-to-maturity (HTM) assets to available-for-sale (AFS) financial assets or applied the new financial instrument standard FVOCI in the past three years [1] - The reclassification has significantly increased the fair value of company assets, thereby enhancing net profits or other comprehensive income and improving solvency ratios [2] Group 2: Interest Rate Trends - Long-term interest rates have been declining, leading to rising bond prices, but a structural uptrend in government bond yields has been observed since 2025, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to 1.86% as of September 30, 2025, up 19 basis points from the end of 2024 [4] - The upward trend in interest rates poses a direct impact on insurance companies that have reclassified a large amount of HTM assets to FVOCI, as rising rates lead to a decrease in the fair value of bond investments, thereby exerting short-term pressure on solvency ratios [5] Group 3: Double Kill Risk - The "double kill" risk arises from the simultaneous impact on both asset and liability sides of the balance sheet, particularly due to the mismatch in duration between assets and liabilities [9] - The average asset duration for traditional insurance in China is about 7 years, while the liability duration is approximately 16 years, resulting in a duration gap of about 9 years [10][11][12][13] - As interest rates rise, the fair value of bond assets decreases, while the liability side experiences increased reserve requirements due to the lagging effect of the 750-day moving average of government bond yields, leading to a dual pressure on actual capital [7][8] Group 4: Future Implications - If interest rates continue to rise, it may reflect an improvement in the economic fundamentals, potentially enhancing reinvestment yields for insurance companies in the long term [18] - The focus should be on the company's investment strength and profitability as the core drivers for enhancing actual capital and optimizing solvency ratios, alongside monitoring operational quality indicators such as new business value rate and investment yield [19]