人民币汇率，再传利好

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut on the Chinese yuan's strength and the resulting increase in foreign exchange settlement surplus in September 2025, indicating a positive sentiment towards RMB assets and a stable foreign exchange market [1][2][11]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Cut and Its Effects - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4%, marking the second rate cut of the year [1]. - This rate cut has contributed to a weaker US dollar, which, along with China's stable exchange rate policies and strong domestic equity market performance, has led to a strengthening of the RMB [1][2]. Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate and Settlement Surplus - On October 30, the onshore RMB/USD exchange rate reached 7.0955, the strongest level since November 4, 2024 [1]. - The RMB's midpoint rate has increased by approximately 1000 basis points this year, surpassing the critical 7.1 mark in October [1][6]. - In September 2025, the settlement surplus reached $51 billion, significantly up from $14.6 billion in August, marking the highest level since January 2021 [5][6]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Settlement Surplus - The increase in settlement surplus is attributed to two main factors: the strong performance of the RMB leading to increased settlement demand and a notable acceleration in export growth, which has expanded the trade surplus [2][6][9]. - The total value of China's imports and exports in September was $566.68 billion, with a trade surplus of $90.45 billion, supporting the settlement surplus [9]. Group 4: Corporate Behavior and Market Sentiment - There has been a notable increase in corporate willingness to settle in RMB, driven by the stable currency value and the desire to lock in profits amid a weakening dollar [6][11]. - The data indicates that banks' customer settlement in September was $258 billion, a significant increase, while customer sales were $206.2 billion, reflecting active trading behavior [9][10]. Group 5: Divergence in Foreign Payments - In September, there was a reversal in the foreign payment balance, with a deficit of 22 billion RMB, contrasting with the settlement surplus, indicating different influences on these metrics [13][14]. - The increase in domestic outward investment, which reached 492.13 billion RMB in September, contributed to this divergence, as it affected the overall foreign payment balance [14].