多家持牌消金接窗口指导，20%或将成贷款综合利率“新红线”

Core Viewpoint - The consumer finance industry is facing a new round of regulatory tightening, with a requirement to reduce the comprehensive cost of personal loans to 20% and a potential reduction in the guarantee and credit enhancement business ratio [3][5]. Regulatory Changes - Regulatory authorities have instructed consumer finance companies to lower the comprehensive cost of personal loans to 20%, with local regulators beginning to communicate this directive [5]. - The specific implementation details and timeline are still pending, but some regions expect to start this process in early December [5]. - Additionally, the cap on guarantee and credit enhancement business is proposed to be reduced from 50% of the total loan amount to 25% [5]. Market Impact - The ongoing push to lower loan interest rates is expected to have a profound impact on the consumer finance market [6][7]. - The previous "24% + credit enhancement service fee" model is being phased out, with new regulations capping the annualized interest rate for assisted loans at 24% [8]. - Following the new regulations, many leading platforms have stopped directing traffic to smaller platforms with annualized rates exceeding 24% [8]. Cost Structure and Risk Levels - The reduction in loan costs is supported by a decline in funding costs and stable overall risk levels in the industry, providing room for lower customer interest rates [9]. - A recent report estimates that the average financing cost for consumer finance companies will decrease by 54 basis points year-on-year in 2024 [9]. - Among nine consumer finance companies that disclosed risk indicators for 2024, most reported a decrease in non-performing loan ratios, with China Post Consumer Finance showing a significant decline of 51 basis points [9]. Future Challenges - Despite the regulatory push, achieving a comprehensive financing cost below 20% remains challenging in the short term [11]. - There are concerns that risks may shift from weaker institutions to medium-sized institutions and even upstream banks, potentially leading to asset quality pressures and a tightening credit environment [11]. - The future competition in the consumer finance industry is expected to focus on risk pricing capabilities, refined operations, and customer experience rather than scale and interest rates [11].