日本央行维持0.5%政策利率，继续观望关税影响

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has decided to maintain its policy interest rate at 0.5% during its monetary policy meeting on October 30, following six consecutive meetings without change since the rate was raised in January. The BOJ is closely monitoring the impact of U.S. tariff policies on the Japanese economy [2][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The BOJ has kept the uncollateralized overnight call rate target at 0.5% since its increase in January [2]. - Two policy board members opposed maintaining the rate, advocating for an increase to 0.75%, citing that the inflation stability target has been largely achieved and that inflation risks are increasing [4]. - The BOJ plans to update its economic and price outlook report every three months, providing forecasts for real GDP growth and consumer price index changes [5]. Group 2: Economic Forecasts - The BOJ forecasts real GDP growth rates of 0.7% for both 2025 and 2026, and 1.0% for 2027 [5]. - The consumer price index, excluding fresh food, is projected to be 2.7% in 2025, 1.8% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027 [5]. - The BOJ maintains its prediction for achieving the 2% inflation stability target between the latter half of 2026 and 2027 [6]. Group 3: Market Expectations - There is a significant market expectation for a rate hike in December, with a 60% probability according to recent statistics [6]. - The BOJ's President, Ueda, is under scrutiny regarding how he will articulate the rate hike policy [6].