美联储欲降还休，市场接下来将如何演绎？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the macroeconomic environment is complex, with ongoing tensions between the US and China, and that the market's fluctuations are part of a normal trading rhythm, especially around psychological thresholds like 4000 points in A-shares [2] - The article discusses the recent FOMC meeting where the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, which was expected, but the market reacted sharply due to comments made by Powell regarding uncertainty about future rate cuts [5][6] - There is an increasing internal division within the Federal Reserve regarding the direction of monetary policy, with some members advocating for a more aggressive rate cut while others prefer to maintain current rates, indicating a complex macroeconomic landscape [8][9] Group 2 - The article suggests that despite the current pause in rate cuts, the overall direction for the Federal Reserve is likely to remain towards easing, influenced by political factors and the state of the US economy [14][15] - It highlights that the US inflation rate, while having decreased from its mid-2022 highs, remains slightly above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, complicating the decision-making process for future rate cuts [10][11] - The article notes that the Chinese government has extended tariff exemptions, which may help stabilize inflation and economic conditions, further supporting the likelihood of future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [15]