美联储降息后日本央行依旧按兵不动，但加息压力陡增

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% for the sixth consecutive time, aligning with market expectations, despite increasing pressure for rate hikes due to a weakening yen and rising inflation concerns [3][7][10]. Economic and Inflation Forecasts - The BOJ revised its GDP growth forecast for the fiscal year 2025 from 0.6% to 0.7%, while maintaining forecasts for 2026 and 2027 at 0.7% and 1.0% respectively [7]. - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) projections for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 are set at 2.7%, 1.8%, and 2.0%, respectively, indicating a stable inflation outlook [7]. Internal and External Pressures for Rate Hikes - BOJ policymakers, including Hajime Takata and Naoki Tamura, expressed dissent against the decision to maintain the current rate, advocating for a 25 basis point increase to 0.75% [7][12]. - There is growing concern among BOJ members regarding the low real interest rates and the potential impact of exchange rate fluctuations on inflation and economic stability [7][12]. Market Reactions and Predictions - Following the BOJ's announcement, the USD/JPY exchange rate surged to 153.08, reflecting market reactions to the ongoing uncertainty and potential for future rate hikes [8]. - Analysts predict that the BOJ may raise interest rates again in December 2023 or January 2024, with expectations of increasing borrowing costs to 1% after a pause [12].