Core Viewpoint - The overall sentiment among fund companies regarding the A-share market is optimistic or moderately optimistic, driven by policy support, ample liquidity, a clear technology theme, and a phase of external environment improvement, suggesting a potential for a fluctuating upward trend in the market [2][10]. Market Outlook - Most fund companies expect the market to maintain a fluctuating upward trend, with a short-term neutral outlook and a long-term bullish perspective, predicting a breakthrough of 4200 points next year, with a fluctuation lower limit of 3500-3600 points [2][10]. - There is a structural bull market, with traditional sectors having a reduced impact on the index, necessitating a focus on industrial trends for investment [2][10]. Cautious Sentiment - Some public funds hold a neutral view on the short-term market, expressing concerns about weak economic fundamentals and the difficulty of improving risk appetite, which may lead to increased market volatility [3][10]. - The core driving force for the A-share market in Q4 is expected to be liquidity easing, but the difficulty in enhancing risk appetite is noted [3][10]. Sector Analysis - The semiconductor sector is widely favored by public funds, with expectations of a cyclical recovery driven by self-sufficiency policies. However, a few funds express caution regarding short-term performance due to valuation concerns and geopolitical risks [4][10][11]. - The computing power sector, driven by the AI wave, is highlighted as a key investment area, with sustained high demand for global computing power. Some funds maintain a neutral or cautious stance on short-term performance, warning of potential overheating risks [6][10]. - Gold is viewed as having long-term allocation value, although some institutions are cautious about short-term trends due to concerns over crowded trades and technical overbought conditions [6][10]. - In the non-ferrous metals sector, there is optimism about continued industry prosperity, particularly for copper and aluminum, but some institutions caution against short-term risks such as rapid price increases and macroeconomic uncertainties [7][11]. Conclusion - Overall, while public funds maintain a strategic optimism as the Shanghai Composite Index surpasses 4000 points, they remain vigilant about structural risks, advising investors to consider valuation, industry prosperity, and policy rhythms when engaging with popular sectors [11].
独家调研｜公募把脉A股 热门板块机遇与风险研判
天天基金网·2025-10-30 10:23