四重因素支撑！碳酸锂再度突破8万/吨！

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market has experienced a strong surge, with both futures and spot markets showing significant price increases due to robust demand, tight supply, and ongoing inventory depletion [3]. Group 1: Demand Dynamics - The demand for lithium carbonate is driven by the booming sectors of electric vehicles and energy storage, with traditional peak seasons and government subsidies effectively releasing consumer demand [5]. - From January to September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 11.24 million and 11.23 million units, respectively, marking year-on-year growth of 35.2% and 34.9%, with new energy vehicles accounting for 46.1% of total vehicle sales [5]. - The energy storage sector is projected to become a major driver of lithium carbonate demand, with the National Energy Administration's plan indicating over 100 million kilowatts of new energy storage capacity to be added by 2027, leading to direct investments of approximately 250 billion yuan [6]. - Domestic energy storage project bidding increased by over 97% year-on-year, with expectations to exceed 360 GWh for the year, while overseas orders for energy storage surged by nearly 132% [6]. - Emerging fields such as eVTOL aircraft and humanoid robots are beginning to contribute to lithium battery demand, indicating a shift towards diversified growth in lithium battery applications [9]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - The supply of lithium carbonate is characterized by a stable total volume but structural differentiation, with some lithium mica enterprises in Jiangxi and Sichuan halting production due to "anti-involution" policies [11]. - Global lithium supply is unstable, with Australian lithium mines undergoing maintenance and geopolitical issues affecting African supplies, leading to low global lithium inventory levels [11]. - Seasonal declines in salt lake lithium extraction and increased environmental inspections are expected to impact monthly production [12]. Group 3: Cost and Inventory Trends - The rebound in lithium concentrate prices, particularly for imported spodumene, has raised production costs for lithium carbonate, with spodumene prices reaching 925 USD per ton, translating to a production cost of approximately 78,600 yuan per ton [14]. - Environmental regulations and resource tax adjustments have also contributed to rising operational costs for companies [14]. - Inventory levels have been decreasing since August, with weekly inventory dropping to 130,000 tons by October 24, reflecting a reduction of 12,600 tons from August's peak [15]. - The futures market has seen a significant reduction in warehouse receipts, with a 26% decrease from early October, leading to increased reluctance among traders to sell [15]. - The demand recovery is expected to continue into the first quarter of next year, with lithium carbonate prices projected to stabilize between 80,000 and 100,000 yuan per ton, potentially exceeding 100,000 yuan if demand outpaces expectations or supply is disrupted [15].