黄金究竟值多少钱？别瞎猜了，“底价+上限”都算出来了

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the disconnection between gold prices and the actual dollar interest rates, emphasizing that traditional valuation methods struggle to price gold due to its non-cash flow nature. It suggests that gold's value is increasingly determined by its extraction costs and macroeconomic factors, particularly inflation [3][6][12]. Group 1: Gold Pricing Dynamics - Gold prices have recently surged and then declined, indicating a detachment from traditional dollar interest rates [3]. - The speculative nature of gold pricing is highlighted, with the notion that its value is largely determined by market perception [6][7]. - The article posits that gold has a "real value" based on the costs associated with its extraction and production [10][11]. Group 2: Cost Metrics in Gold Mining - The All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) is introduced as a key metric for understanding the costs of maintaining gold mining operations, with the latest data showing an average AISC of $1,456 per ounce [14][19]. - AISC is contrasted with All-In Costs (AIC), which includes additional costs related to growth and exploration, suggesting that AIC is higher than AISC due to the inclusion of failed explorations and new mine developments [19][20][23]. - The estimated "bottom price" of gold, based on AISC and additional costs, is approximated to be around $1,600 per ounce [24]. Group 3: Gold's Price Ceiling - The article estimates the upper limit for gold prices to be between $40,000 and $70,000 per ounce, based on global wealth comparisons [29][35]. - It discusses the limitations of using total wealth to value gold, suggesting that a more appropriate comparison would be with global currency supply [37][39]. - The potential price ceiling is further analyzed, concluding that while current estimates suggest a maximum of $5,000 per ounce, long-term trends may push prices beyond this threshold [45].