制造业PMI回落至49%

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in October decreased to 49.0%, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity after two months of growth, influenced by pre-holiday demand release and a complex international environment [3][4]. Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The manufacturing PMI fell by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a contraction in manufacturing sentiment [3][4]. - The production index for manufacturing dropped to 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points, indicating a slight slowdown in production activities [8]. - New export orders index decreased to 45.9%, marking a significant contraction in export demand, particularly in equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods manufacturing [9][10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Both supply and demand are experiencing a slowdown, with the procurement index falling to 49%, down 2.6 percentage points, indicating reduced purchasing activities among manufacturers [8]. - The overall market demand is weak, driven by external uncertainties and seasonal factors, leading to cautious production intentions among manufacturers [9]. Price Trends - Despite the slowdown, there are positive price changes in the manufacturing sector, with the purchasing price index and factory price index in equipment manufacturing rising for three consecutive months [12]. - The consumer goods manufacturing sector saw a decrease in purchasing price index by 2.5 percentage points, indicating reduced cost pressures, which may benefit profit margins [13]. Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.1%, indicating expansion, driven by holiday effects and increased consumer activity in sectors like transportation and hospitality [16]. - The business activity expectation index remains high at 56.1%, suggesting strong confidence among service sector enterprises regarding future growth [16].