21世纪经济报道·2025-10-31 12:22Core Viewpoint - The inclusion of the HPV vaccine in the national immunization program is expected to significantly reduce the disease burden and improve public health, while also intensifying market competition and accelerating industry restructuring [2][4]. Group 1: National Immunization Program - The National Health Commission and other departments have announced that starting from November 10, 2025, the HPV vaccine will be included in the national immunization program, providing free vaccinations for girls born after November 10, 2011, who are at least 13 years old [1][5]. - Currently, three types of bivalent HPV vaccines are approved in China, including those from WanTai Bio and Watson Bio, as well as GSK's Cervarix [1][8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The government procurement project for the bivalent HPV vaccine has a budget of approximately 425 million yuan, with a total of 15.4465 million doses planned, indicating a competitive landscape with only two manufacturers involved [8]. - The HPV vaccine market in China is experiencing increased competition, with prices for bivalent vaccines dropping significantly; for instance, the price fell from 329 yuan at launch to as low as 27.5 yuan in recent government procurement projects [9][10]. Group 3: Industry Challenges and Opportunities - Major companies like WanTai Bio and Watson Bio are facing significant revenue declines, with WanTai's revenue dropping by 23.09% in the first three quarters of 2023, marking its first loss since going public [10]. - Despite short-term challenges, the long-term growth potential of the HPV vaccine market remains strong, with projections indicating the market could grow from 13.5 billion yuan in 2020 to 69 billion yuan by 2030 [10].