12月是否降息？“美联储内部存在严重分歧”

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points has created uncertainty regarding future policy directions, with Chairman Powell indicating that a December rate cut is "far from a done deal" [3][4][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision and Internal Disagreements - The Federal Reserve's policy-making committee voted 10-2 to lower the benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, marking the first instance of "dual opposition" since 2019 [5]. - There are significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, with some officials expressing caution about further rate cuts due to persistent inflation concerns [6][7]. - Dallas Fed President Logan stated that unless there is clear evidence of a faster-than-expected decline in inflation or a cooling labor market, another rate cut in December is unlikely [7]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Market Reactions - Financial markets have reduced their expectations for a December rate cut to 60%, down from over 95% earlier in the week, reflecting uncertainty in the economic outlook [10]. - Economists from Deutsche Bank, Montreal Bank, and Goldman Sachs maintain their view that the Fed will cut rates again in December, while Wilmington Trust's chief economist believes employment data will support a rate cut [11]. - Oxford Economics' senior economist noted that the likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months remains low, suggesting that inflation risks will weigh more heavily in the Fed's policy considerations moving forward [12].