21世纪经济报道·2025-11-01 08:00Core Viewpoint - Despite significant revenue growth reported by leading optical module companies, the market has reacted negatively, indicating concerns over the sustainability of growth and valuation levels [1][10]. Financial Performance - Zhongji Xuchuang reported a revenue of 25.005 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 44.43%, with a net profit of 7.132 billion yuan, up 90.05% [4]. - Xinyi Sheng achieved a revenue of 16.505 billion yuan, a remarkable year-on-year growth of 221.70%, and a net profit of 6.327 billion yuan, up 284.37% [4]. - In Q3, Zhongji Xuchuang's revenue was 10.216 billion yuan with a gross margin of 43% and a net profit of 3.327 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30.38% [4]. - Xinyi Sheng's Q3 revenue was 6.068 billion yuan, showing a decline from the previous quarter due to changes in product shipment schedules [4][7]. Market Reaction - Following the earnings reports, both companies experienced significant stock price declines, with Zhongji Xuchuang dropping 8.11% and Xinyi Sheng falling 7.94% on October 31 [1]. - The combined market value loss for both companies over two days was approximately 114.4 billion yuan [1]. Industry Trends - The optical module industry is transitioning from high demand for 800G products to the accelerated market penetration of 1.6T products, which is expected to drive future growth [7]. - Silicon photonics technology is becoming a competitive focus due to its cost advantages and high integration, with both companies increasing their focus on this technology [7][8]. Capacity Expansion - Zhongji Xuchuang's construction projects increased significantly from 52.53 million yuan at the beginning of the year to 980 million yuan, a growth of 1765.65% [8]. - Xinyi Sheng is also expanding its overseas capacity, with gradual releases expected from its Thailand factory [8]. Supply Chain Concerns - The supply chain, particularly the availability of optical chips, is becoming a critical factor for industry growth, with Zhongji Xuchuang noting a high level of tension in chip supply due to rapid demand growth [8][9]. Inventory and Tax Risks - Both companies are facing operational pressures due to inventory increases, with Zhongji Xuchuang's inventory rising by 52.64% and Xinyi Sheng's by 59.79% since the beginning of the year [9]. - Zhongji Xuchuang's effective tax rate increased to 15.8% due to new tax regulations affecting its overseas operations, which may impact future tax burdens [9]. Valuation Pressure - As of October 31, Zhongji Xuchuang had a market capitalization of 522.9 billion yuan with a dynamic P/E ratio of 55.27, while Xinyi Sheng had a market cap of 342.2 billion yuan with a P/E ratio of 40.57, indicating significant valuation concerns [10]. - The market's reaction reflects worries about the sustainability of the optical module industry's growth cycle and the sensitivity of high valuations to negative news [10][11].