第一财经·2025-11-01 12:19Core Viewpoint - Pfizer has filed a lawsuit against Metsera and Novo Nordisk regarding a bidding war for Metsera, highlighting the significant increase in valuations for weight loss therapies over the past year [3][5]. Group 1: Acquisition Dynamics - Pfizer initiated discussions to acquire Metsera in 2024, with Novo Nordisk making its first formal offer of $2 billion on January 23, which was rejected by Metsera's board due to regulatory risks and low valuation [3][4]. - The bidding process escalated, with Pfizer's offer increasing from $30 per share in June to a peak of $70 per share [4]. - Novo Nordisk's final offer on September 20 included a complex equity structure that Metsera's board deemed too risky [5]. Group 2: Market Implications - Analysts estimate that Metsera's potential weight loss therapies could generate approximately $5 billion in annual sales [5]. - Barclays forecasts that the global weight loss therapy market could reach $150 billion by 2030, indicating significant opportunities for new entrants alongside established players like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk [5]. - The competition between Pfizer and Novo Nordisk for Metsera not only affects their strategic positioning but also has the potential to reshape the competitive landscape of the global weight loss drug market [5]. Group 3: Product Development - Metsera's key assets include a GLP-1 receptor agonist in phase 2 development and a long-acting insulin analog in phase 1, which could offer differentiated advantages if combined successfully [6]. - Pfizer's own development of weight loss drugs has faced challenges, leading to a strategic pivot towards acquisitions to enter the weight loss market [6]. - Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 therapy, semaglutide, saw a 58% year-over-year sales increase in the first half of 2025, with its weight loss version growing by 78%, indicating strong market performance [6]. Group 4: Future Market Trends - The entry of Pfizer and other new players is expected to shift the weight loss drug market from a "duopoly" to a "multi-player" competition [7]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that oral GLP-1 drugs will capture about 24% of the weight loss therapy market by 2030, suggesting substantial growth potential [7].