又见4000点！这次A股，面临怎样的大棋局？看清两个“为什么”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the A-share market, particularly in light of the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 4000-point mark for the third time in history, and analyzes the long-term outlook for A-shares amidst historical economic challenges and transformations in China [1][6]. Historical Context - The first breakthrough of 4000 points in 2007 was characterized by visible valuation bubbles, with blue-chip stocks trading at 40-50 times earnings and small-cap stocks exceeding 100 times, while the real estate and trust sectors offered around 10% returns, creating a "capital black hole" that suppressed stock valuations [1]. - In 2015, the second breakthrough occurred amid discussions of economic weakness, shadow banking, and local government debt, leading to a lack of confidence despite reasonable blue-chip valuations, resulting in a retreat from the 4000-point level [1]. Current Economic Landscape - Today, issues such as shadow banking, local debt, and overheated real estate have been effectively addressed, and while new challenges like trade wars exist, the Chinese economy has transformed, relying more on domestic demand and consumption, with innovation becoming the primary growth driver [1][2]. Infrastructure and Economic Stability - China leads globally in social durable goods, including water infrastructure, high-speed rail, electricity generation, and 5G base stations, which contributes to lower long-term interest rates and higher valuation levels [2][5]. - The country’s infrastructure projects, such as the restoration of historically significant waterways and the expansion of high-speed rail, are expected to enhance economic stability and growth potential [5]. Valuation and Discount Rates - The article references economist Irving Fisher's insights on discount rates, noting that societies with more durable goods tend to have lower interest rates and higher valuation levels [3][4]. - The current rolling price-to-earnings ratio for the Shanghai Composite Index is 17 times, with a dividend yield of 2.3%, while the dividend index shows an 8 times rolling P/E ratio and a 4.2% yield, indicating a favorable risk-return profile for A-shares [6]. Currency and Global Investment Appeal - The article highlights the potential for the renminbi to appreciate, enhancing the attractiveness of A-shares to global investors, especially as more commodities are traded in renminbi [7][8]. - The combination of economic growth, valuation improvement, and currency appreciation presents a compelling investment opportunity in A-shares for long-term capital [8].