刚刚！美联储，降息大消息！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's path for interest rate cuts is becoming increasingly uncertain, with internal divisions among officials regarding the timing and necessity of further rate reductions [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller advocates for a continued rate cut in December due to risks of a slowing labor market, contrasting with other officials who express concerns about inflation risks [3][4]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has decreased from over 90% to approximately 63% according to the CME FedWatch Tool [2]. - The Federal Reserve recently lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4.00%, marking the second consecutive rate cut [4]. Group 2: Internal Divisions Among Officials - There is a notable increase in internal dissent within the Federal Reserve, with two voting members opposing the recent rate cut, indicating a split in views on monetary policy [5]. - Kansas City Fed President Esther George expressed concerns that the recent rate cut may have been too aggressive, citing ongoing inflation risks [3][5]. - Market analysts suggest that if future economic data remains mixed, the divisions within the Federal Reserve may persist for a longer period [5][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Implications - Bill Gross, co-founder of Pimco, has adopted a bearish stance on U.S. Treasuries, citing excessive expansion risks in the U.S. financial system and a growing deficit [6]. - Investors are advised to adjust their strategies towards longer-term bonds, which are less affected by short-term policy fluctuations [6].