反弹！负极开始酝酿规模涨价

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a comprehensive recovery driven by strong demand in the new energy vehicle and energy storage markets, with product prices beginning to rebound since the third quarter [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is facing a tight balance due to the long expansion cycle of graphitization capacity, which takes over two years for capacities above 100,000 tons to expand, and some idled capacities are difficult to restore in the short term [3]. - Major manufacturers maintain high operating rates due to scale effects, technological barriers, and stable customer relationships, with companies like BTR, Sanyou Technology, and Putailai achieving significant output [3]. - The average industry capacity utilization rate has risen to over 75%, with BTR's utilization rate reaching around 94% in the first half of 2025 [3]. Price Trends and Cost Pressures - The average market price of lithium battery anode materials is approximately 32,000 yuan per ton as of October 2025, with some companies negotiating price increases due to rising raw material costs [2]. - The price of petroleum coke has increased by 4% since October, and production costs for anode materials are nearing the breakeven point, leading to increased willingness among companies to raise prices [2]. Company Performance - Companies like Zhongke Electric and Shangtai Technology have reported significant revenue and profit growth, with Zhongke Electric's revenue increasing by 52.03% year-on-year and net profit by 118.85% in the first three quarters of 2025 [4][5]. - Shangtai Technology has expanded its external processing capacity to meet demand, indicating a tight supply situation [5]. Future Outlook - The industry is expected to see a peak in new capacity additions between 2024 and 2025, with a slowdown in anode capacity growth anticipated in 2025 [5]. - The strong growth in demand and the rise in high-end product requirements are expected to provide growth momentum for the industry, while supply-side capacity optimization will help alleviate excess pressure [5].