摩根大通-锂：储能需求将使市场陷入短缺

Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates a shift towards a lithium supply deficit due to increased demand from energy storage systems (ESS) and electric vehicles (EV), with significant upward revisions in lithium price forecasts [1][8][19]. Demand Analysis - The forecast for ESS shipments in China has been raised significantly, with expected growth rates of 40% in 2025 and 29% in 2026, leading to a total shipment of 349 GWh by 2026 [3]. - Global lithium demand is projected to reach 2.83 million tons by 2030, with ESS accounting for 36% of this demand [5][6]. - The demand for lithium from electric vehicles is expected to grow by 3%-5% annually from 2025 to 2030 [6][9]. Supply Analysis - The supply side remains constrained, with uncertainties surrounding the restart of CATL's lithium mines, which are crucial for meeting the rising demand [7]. - Western mining companies have indicated that they will only consider restarting idle capacity if lithium prices stabilize between $1,200 and $1,500 per ton [7][19]. Price Forecast - Short-term lithium price forecasts have been revised upwards from $800 per ton to $1,100 and $1,200 for 2026 and 2027, respectively, reflecting the current supply-demand imbalance [8][18]. - Long-term lithium price expectations have been adjusted from $1,100 to $1,300 per ton, aligning with market consensus and the need for higher prices to incentivize new supply [19][20]. Stock Ratings - Pilbara Minerals' rating has been upgraded from Underweight to Overweight, reflecting improved market conditions and expectations for higher lithium prices [4][12]. - Other companies such as Mineral Resources, IGO, and Liontown Resources have also seen their ratings adjusted to Neutral, indicating a more favorable outlook based on the revised demand and price forecasts [12][13][14].