公募重仓股25年进化史！赛道在变，穿越牛熊“主心骨”未变

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the structural changes in the top ten heavy holdings of public funds from 2000 to 2025, highlighting the transition from cyclical industries to consumer sectors, and now to technology and high-end manufacturing, reflecting the evolution of China's economic transformation over 25 years [1][10]. Group 1: Heavy Holdings Evolution - From 2000 to 2010, the top heavy holdings were dominated by cyclical stocks like steel and finance, indicating the characteristics of industrialization and urbanization [2]. - Key stocks during this period included China Unicom and China Merchants Bank, with the latter being the top holding for nine consecutive years, showcasing the banking sector's strong profitability during credit expansion [2]. - By 2010 to 2020, consumer sectors took over, with Kweichow Moutai becoming a core benchmark, reflecting the trend of rising household income and consumption upgrades [3]. Group 2: Technology and High-End Manufacturing - From 2020 onwards, technology and high-end manufacturing emerged as the new mainline, with CATL surpassing Kweichow Moutai in market value, indicating the prominence of the new energy sector [4]. - As of Q3 2025, CATL's market value reached 2071.04 billion yuan, with a net profit growth of 36.2%, while semiconductor stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyisheng entered the top holdings [4]. Group 3: Performance Correlation - There is a clear positive correlation between net profit growth and stock price increases among the top holdings, with New Yisheng's net profit growth at 284.38% and stock price increase of 318.74% in 2025 [5][6]. - Historical examples show that high profit growth is a core support for industry resilience, with significant stock price increases corresponding to profit growth in various years [6]. Group 4: Industry Concentration Changes - The evolution of industry concentration in heavy holdings shows a shift from high concentration in finance and steel in 2007 to a more diversified approach by 2025, reflecting a strategy of seeking alpha returns across various sectors [7]. - The current holdings cover multiple fields, including electrical equipment and communication, indicating a move towards diversified investment strategies [7]. Group 5: Understanding Investment Trends - The historical changes in heavy holdings reveal that investment is fundamentally about aligning with the trends of the times, transitioning from cyclical to consumer and now to technology sectors [8][9]. - The lifecycle of industries is crucial for understanding the changes in heavy holdings, with technology and high-end manufacturing currently in a growth phase, as evidenced by the significant market value increases of key players [9].