21世纪经济报道·2025-11-04 13:53Core Insights - The Hong Kong commercial real estate market is experiencing a dramatic shift, with tech giants like Alibaba and Ant Group investing heavily, while traditional real estate players like Dahonghui are opting to sell their properties [1][11]. Market Performance - The third quarter of 2025 saw the highest net absorption of Grade A office space in Hong Kong since 2018, reaching 691,800 square feet, with all major commercial districts reporting positive net absorption for the first time since Q2 2015 [3]. - The overall vacancy rate for Grade A offices improved for two consecutive quarters, dropping to 17.1% by the end of September, marking the largest quarterly decline since Q3 2018 [3]. Rental Trends - New leasing activity from January to Q3 2025 reached 3.3 million square feet, aligning with 2019 levels, as companies take advantage of a 43% drop in rental prices compared to early 2019 [5]. - The demand for premium office spaces in core areas remains resilient, with Central reporting a net absorption of 138,000 square feet, the highest in a decade, and only a slight rental decline of 0.3% [8][9]. Emerging Demand - The resurgence in the office market is driven by the booming IPO market and the rise of the wealth management sector, with banks and multinational companies accelerating their office space negotiations [5]. - Over 70 companies have successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this year, raising over HKD 189.3 billion, indicating a robust capital market that boosts confidence in the real estate sector [6]. New Players and Market Dynamics - Mainland companies are becoming a significant force in the Hong Kong office market, with Alibaba and Ant Group's acquisition of a prime property in Causeway Bay exemplifying this trend [11]. - Despite new entrants, the overall market recovery is expected to take time, with a projected increase in office rental rates anticipated between 2027 and 2028 due to a significant reduction in new supply [11][12]. Investment Sentiment - Currently, investors account for only 20% of office buyers, a significant drop from the historical average of 50%, primarily due to cautious bank lending and unattractive rental yields compared to other investment options [12][13]. - The overall office market faces challenges from oversupply, with a current vacancy rate of approximately 19% and a substantial new supply of 3.3 million square feet expected to take two to three years to absorb [13].