央行恢复暂停近10个月的国债买卖操作

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has resumed the operation of buying and selling government bonds, injecting 20 billion yuan into the banking system in October, which is aimed at supporting the real economy and stabilizing market expectations [3][5]. Group 1: Market Operations - In October, the PBOC conducted a net injection of 20 billion yuan through government bond transactions, marking the resumption of operations that had been paused since January 2025 [3][4]. - The resumption of bond trading is seen as a measure to enhance liquidity and support the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies [3][5]. - The current 10-year government bond yield has risen to around 1.8%, indicating favorable conditions for the resumption of bond trading compared to earlier this year [5][6]. Group 2: Liquidity Management - The PBOC's recent actions, including a 700 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation scheduled for November 5, aim to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [6][7]. - There are significant upcoming maturities, including 700 billion yuan in three-month reverse repos and 9 billion yuan in medium-term lending facilities (MLF), which necessitate continued liquidity support [7][8]. - Analysts expect that the PBOC will likely conduct additional operations to ensure liquidity remains sufficient, especially as year-end pressures increase [7][8]. Group 3: Market Expectations - The low net buying scale of 20 billion yuan reflects the PBOC's cautious approach to avoid rapid declines in interest rates while still providing market support [5][8]. - The overall expectation is that the resumption of bond trading will not lead to significant monetary easing or a drastic drop in interest rates, maintaining a balanced liquidity environment [8].