速递｜Anthropic预计2028年营收达700亿美元，2027年实现正现金流、早于OpenAI

Core Insights - Anthropic has raised its optimistic revenue forecast for the next three years by approximately 13% to 28%, expecting to generate up to $70 billion by 2028, compared to nearly $5 billion this year [3][4] - The company anticipates that demand from enterprises for its AI models will drive this growth [4] - Anthropic predicts that by 2025, revenue from API sales will be about twice that of its larger competitor, OpenAI [5] Financial Projections - If a new funding round occurs, Anthropic's valuation target is likely to be set between $300 billion and $400 billion [6] - In September, Anthropic raised $13 billion from investors, significantly exceeding its initial plan of about $3.5 billion, leading to a pre-funding valuation of $170 billion, nearly three times its valuation announced in March [6] - The company expects to achieve positive cash flow by 2027, ahead of OpenAI's timeline, which does not anticipate cash flow until 2030 [6] Competitive Positioning - Anthropic is positioning itself as a more efficient competitor to OpenAI, which has rapidly outpaced peers in funding and securing server chip orders [6] - Anthropic has become a market leader in selling AI models to enterprises and application developers [6] Revenue and Cash Flow Expectations - OpenAI's recent employee stock sales have valued it at $500 billion, with projected revenue of $13 billion this year, nearly three times Anthropic's optimistic forecast of $4.7 billion [8] - By 2027, OpenAI's cash burn is expected to reach approximately $35 billion, while Anthropic anticipates free cash flow of $3 billion [8] - By 2028, Anthropic expects to generate up to $17 billion in cash flow, while OpenAI's cash burn is projected to be close to $47 billion [8] Business Model and Revenue Streams - Anthropic focuses on selling its Claude AI models to enterprise clients, with a subscription service ranging from $17 to $150 per month [8] - The company predicts that by 2028, sales from its API and related applications will contribute over 80% of its revenue [12] - The annualized revenue from Claude Code is nearing $1 billion, a significant increase from approximately $400 million in July [13] Profitability and Margins - Anthropic's gross margin is expected to improve from a negative 94% last year to a maximum of 50% this year, reaching 77% by 2028 [14] - However, if the costs of running models for non-paying users are included, the gross margin would be lower, with the most optimistic forecast showing a margin of 47% this year and 75% by 2028 [16]