Roche(US:RHHBY) 21世纪经济报道·2025-11-05 03:56Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing risk of influenza transmission due to the overlap of the flu season and the peak of outbound travel from China, highlighting the importance of antiviral treatments and the competitive landscape of flu medications in the market [4][8][10]. Group 1: Influenza Overview - Influenza is an acute respiratory infectious disease caused by influenza viruses, with seasonal outbreaks primarily occurring from October to February in the Northern Hemisphere [4]. - The high season for influenza coincides with the peak of outbound travel from China, raising public health concerns [4][8]. Group 2: Antiviral Treatments - Early antiviral treatment is crucial for influenza cases with severe risk factors, with the greatest benefit seen when treatment is initiated within 48 hours of symptom onset [4][10]. - The main antiviral drugs available in China include neuraminidase inhibitors, RNA polymerase inhibitors, and hemagglutinin inhibitors, with Oseltamivir and Baloxavir Marboxil being the preferred options [5][12]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The market for influenza medications has become highly competitive, especially after the patent expiration of Oseltamivir in 2016, leading to a surge in generic versions [5][13]. - As of November 2023, there are nearly 140 drug approvals related to Oseltamivir in China, indicating a crowded market [13]. - Baloxavir Marboxil, a second-generation antiviral, has gained market share since its approval in 2021, with sales expected to exceed 1.5 billion yuan by 2024 [13][14]. Group 4: Market Growth Potential - The Chinese market for antiviral medications for influenza was valued at 10.74 billion yuan in 2023, showing a year-on-year growth of 197.51% [14]. - Forecasts suggest a compound annual growth rate of 20.2% from 2024 to 2028, with the market potentially reaching 26.9 billion yuan by 2028 [14].