日元汇率还会跌?在测试日本政府容忍度

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has depreciated significantly against the US dollar, with a nearly 5% drop in the past month, raising concerns about potential government intervention in the foreign exchange market [2][4]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - The exchange rate for the yen against the dollar was recorded at 154.15 to 154.25 yen per dollar at the close of the New York market on November 3, with fluctuations primarily above 154 yen during Tokyo trading on November 4 [4]. - The yen's depreciation reached a low of 154 yen on October 30, marking the lowest level in eight months [4]. - The yen has experienced a 4.4% decline compared to 21 trading days prior, with the most significant drop of 4.6% occurring on October 30, the largest since July 31 [4][6]. Group 2: Government and Central Bank Responses - Former Japanese Finance Minister and current ADB President Kanda Masato noted that a 5% fluctuation is a significant indicator for potential government intervention, although it is not a strict condition [2][6]. - The Japanese government and the Bank of Japan intervened in the currency market in July 2022, buying yen and selling dollars when fluctuations were deemed excessive [6]. - Despite the recent depreciation, the Bank of Japan decided to maintain its policy interest rate, which has led to further yen depreciation and a stronger dollar [6][7]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Market sentiment indicates a lack of urgency within the government regarding the yen's depreciation, suggesting that the yen may continue to seek lower levels in the short term [6]. - Japanese Finance Minister Kato Sakuyuki acknowledged the rapid and one-sided nature of the yen's depreciation but supported the Bank of Japan's decision as reasonable under current circumstances [7].