【库存指数】2025年10月中国汽车经销商库存预警指数为52.6%

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive market shows signs of improvement in October 2025, with the Vehicle Inventory Alert Index at 52.6%, indicating a better industry outlook despite some ongoing challenges for dealers [2][4]. Market Performance - October 2025 continued the peak season trend, driven by local subsidy policies, the National Day auto show, and year-end promotions, leading to a significant year-on-year increase in order volume in the first half of the month [4]. - Post-National Day, market demand experienced a cyclical pullback, with new orders slightly declining compared to late September, but the market remains resilient due to the impending expiration of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption [4]. - The overall market is expected to maintain a "golden September and silver October" pattern, supported by the release of fourth batch subsidy funds and various year-end benefits [4]. Dealer Conditions - Despite increased foot traffic and order volume, the operational conditions for dealers have not improved significantly, with some manufacturers raising sales targets for dealers, leading to inventory buildup and tight liquidity [4]. - The sub-indices for inventory, workforce, and operational conditions decreased month-on-month, while market demand and average daily sales indices increased [4]. Regional Analysis - The national index stands at 52.6%, with regional indices showing variability: North at 51.3%, East at 51.2%, West at 48.3%, and South at 56.0% [6]. Brand Performance - The index for luxury and imported brands, as well as joint venture brands, decreased month-on-month, while the index for domestic brands increased [7]. Future Market Outlook - Entering November, automakers and dealers are in a push to meet annual targets, with the "Double 11" shopping season, the Guangzhou Auto Show, and continued subsidies expected to enhance terminal demand [8]. - The impending end of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption is likely to encourage consumers to make purchases earlier, boosting fourth-quarter sales [8]. - The China Automobile Dealers Association advises dealers to rationally estimate actual market demand and enhance promotion of "trade-in and scrapping" policies to boost consumer confidence [8].