【广发金工】关注指数成分股调整的投资机会

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the growing recognition of index-based investment among investors, highlighting the potential investment opportunities arising from significant changes in index constituents due to the periodic rebalancing of major indices like the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500 [1][4]. Group 1: Index Fund Growth - The total scale of passive index funds (including ETFs and off-market passive index funds) reached 4.5 trillion yuan as of October 31, with 2,294 funds, while enhanced index funds totaled 265.3 billion yuan, surpassing the scale of equity mixed funds at 2.53 trillion yuan [2][15]. - The total scale of equity ETFs grew from approximately 200 billion yuan in 2014 to 3.72 trillion yuan by October 2025, indicating significant growth [15]. Group 2: Historical Adjustment Effects of Index Constituents - Historical analysis from 2019 to mid-2025 shows that stocks added to indices tend to outperform the index in the two weeks prior to their inclusion, while those removed tend to underperform [2][24]. - The average excess return for stocks added to the index in the two weeks before inclusion was 4.89%, with a success rate of 66.67% [25]. Group 3: Latest Adjustment Impact Estimation - The expected adjustments for December 2025 indicate that the SSE 50 will adjust 4 stocks with an estimated passive buy amount of 5.5 billion yuan, the CSI 300 will adjust 10 stocks with an estimated net buy of 24.5 billion yuan, and the CSI 500 will adjust 50 stocks with an estimated buy of 3.3 billion yuan [3][33].