央行10月买债200亿元低于预期？后续仍有想象空间

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a liquidity injection of 20 billion yuan through government bond transactions in October, which was lower than market expectations, leading to disappointment in the bond market [5][6][7]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, major interest rate bond yields initially rose but later fell as buying interest increased, with the 30-year government bond yield decreasing by 0.4 basis points to 2.136% [6][8]. - The bond market had previously experienced a decline in yields, with significant drops observed in late October [6][9]. - Analysts noted that the 20 billion yuan net purchase was significantly lower than the previous monthly net purchases of 100 billion to 300 billion yuan, causing some investors to feel disappointed [6][7]. Group 2: Economic Context - The resumption of government bond transactions comes after a pause since January, aimed at stabilizing liquidity and market expectations [5][9]. - The bond market's overall performance has improved compared to earlier in the year, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from a low of 1.6% to around 1.8% [9][10]. - The PBOC's actions are seen as a response to the improved supply-demand dynamics in the bond market and the need for coordination between fiscal and monetary policies [9][10]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Market attention is now focused on the scale, duration, and methods of future bond purchases by the PBOC, with expectations that the net purchase scale may exceed that of October [10][11]. - Analysts suggest that the future scale of bond purchases will depend on the movement of bond yields, with potential adjustments based on market conditions [10][11]. - The PBOC's strategy may involve a mix of short and medium to long-term bonds in future purchases, reflecting the behavior of major banks as counterparties [10][11].