刚宣布，不降息！

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Brazil has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 15%, aligning with market expectations and reflecting ongoing economic uncertainties [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Context - A survey of 40 economists indicated a consensus that the Central Bank would keep the rate unchanged at 15% [4]. - The monetary policy committee highlighted that the global environment remains uncertain due to U.S. economic policies and geopolitical tensions, necessitating caution for emerging markets [4][5]. - Domestic economic growth is expected to slow, although the labor market remains strong [4]. Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Recent data shows improvements in overall and core inflation indicators, yet they still exceed the inflation target [4]. - The committee noted that inflation expectations are unanchored, and high inflation forecasts persist, requiring a prolonged period of tight monetary policy to ensure inflation converges to target levels [5]. - The decision to maintain the Selic rate at 15% is deemed consistent with strategies aimed at stabilizing inflation while also smoothing economic fluctuations and promoting full employment [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The monetary policy committee remains vigilant and may adjust future monetary policy steps, including potentially resuming the rate hike cycle if deemed appropriate [5]. - Economists project Brazil's GDP growth for 2026 to be 1.78%, slightly down from a previous estimate of 1.80% [5].